The 30.5% Signal: How On-Chain Prediction Markets Are Pricing the Iran War's Endgame
Over the past 7 days, one probability has dominated Ethereum-based prediction...
Blockchain
•
MetaMoon
•
2026-07-25
Market Prices
| Coin | Price | 24h |
|---|---|---|
|
BTC
Bitcoin
|
$63,304.4 | +1.22% |
|
ETH
Ethereum
|
$1,869.02 | +0.88% |
|
SOL
Solana
|
$73.41 | +2.54% |
|
BNB
BNB Chain
|
$590 | +2.48% |
|
XRP
XRP Ledger
|
$1.08 | +2.27% |
|
DOGE
Dogecoin
|
$0.0708 | +2.24% |
|
ADA
Cardano
|
$0.1895 | +9.73% |
|
AVAX
Avalanche
|
$6.63 | +5.65% |
|
DOT
Polkadot
|
$0.7968 | +3.17% |
|
LINK
Chainlink
|
$8.33 | +3.80% |
Fear & Greed
27
Fear
Market Sentiment
Event Calendar
202608
04
upgrade
Solana Firedancer
Independent validator client goes live on mainnet
15
04
halving
Bitcoin Halving
Block reward reduced to 3.125 BTC
22
03
unlock
Optimism Unlock
Circulating supply increases by about 2%
18
03
unlock
Sui Token Unlock
Team and early investor shares released
30
04
upgrade
Celestia Mainnet Upgrade
Improves data availability sampling efficiency
12
05
halving
BCH Halving
Block reward halving event
28
03
unlock
Arbitrum Token Unlock
92 million ARB released
10
05
upgrade
Ethereum Pectra Upgrade
Raises validator limit and account abstraction
Altseason Index
44
Bitcoin Season
BTC Dominance
Altseason
Gas Tracker
Ethereum
28 Gwei
BNB Chain
3 Gwei
Polygon
42 Gwei
Arbitrum
0.5 Gwei
Optimism
0.3 Gwei
Hot Tags
Market Cap
All →
1
Bitcoin
BTC
$63,304.4
1
Ethereum
ETH
$1,869.02
1
Solana
SOL
$73.41
1
BNB Chain
BNB
$590
1
XRP Ledger
XRP
$1.08
1
Dogecoin
DOGE
$0.0708
1
Cardano
ADA
$0.1895
1
Avalanche
AVAX
$6.63
1
Polkadot
DOT
$0.7968
1
Chainlink
LINK
$8.33
🐋 Whale Tracker
🟢
0x42df...1838
30m ago
In
4,080,579 USDT
🟢
0xe94f...95a4
6h ago
In
1,880,937 USDT
🔴
0xf76b...17fc
2m ago
Out
2,628.81 BTC
💡 Smart Money
0xdd7e...ae41
Early Investor
+$0.6M
63%
0x4c35...9e18
Experienced On-chain Trader
+$0.5M
78%
0x5a50...bcbb
Institutional Custody
+$0.1M
82%
#iran war
iran war related articles
The 30.5% Signal: How Polymarket Priced the Iran War Floor Before the Headlines
The Hook A single number sits on Polymarket’s order book: 30.5. That’s the...
In-depth
•
SatoshiShark
•
2026-07-23